BAL-502-RF-03: Planning Resource Adequacy Analysis, Assessment and Documentation

Purpose
To establish common criteria, based on “one day in ten year” loss of Load expectation principles, for the analysis, assessment and documentation of Resource Adequacy for Load in the ReliabilityFirst Corporation (RFC) region

Applicability
Planning Coordinator

Effective Date
1/1/2018

Requirements

R1 The Planning Coordinator shall perform and document a Resource Adequacy analysis annually. The Resource Adequacy analysis shall [Violation Risk Factor: Medium] [Time Horizon: Long-term Planning]:

1.1        Calculate a planning reserve margin that will result in the sum of the probabilities for loss of Load for the integrated peak hour for all days of each planning year1 analyzed (per R1.2) being equal to 0.1. (This is comparable to a “one day in 10 year” criterion).

1.1.1     The utilization of Direct Control Load Management or curtailment of Interruptible Demand shall not contribute to the loss of Load probability.

1.1.2     The planning reserve margin developed from R1.1 shall be expressed as a percentage of the median2 forecast peak Net Internal Demand (planning reserve margin).

1.2        Be performed or verified separately for each of the following planning years:

1.2.1     Perform an analysis for Year One.

1.2.2     Perform an analysis or verification at a minimum for one year in the 2 through 5 year period and at a minimum one year in the 6 though 10 year period.

1.2.2.1  If the analysis is verified, the verification must be supported by current or past studies for the same planning year.

1.3        Include the following subject matter and documentation of its use:

1.3.1     Load forecast characteristics:

1.3.1.1  Median (50:50) forecast peak Load.

1.3.1.2  Load forecast uncertainty (reflects variability in the Load forecast due to weather and regional economic forecasts).

1.3.1.3  Load diversity.

1.3.1.4  Seasonal Load variations.

1.3.1.5  Daily demand modeling assumptions (firm, interruptible).

1.3.1.6  Contractual arrangements concerning curtailable/Interruptible Demand.

1.3.2     Resource characteristics:

1.3.2.1  Historic resource performance and any projected changes

1.3.2.2  Seasonal resource ratings

1.3.2.3  Modeling assumptions of firm capacity purchases from and sales to entities outside the Planning Coordinator area.

1.3.2.4  Resource planned outage schedules, deratings, and retirements.

1.3.2.5  Modeling assumptions of intermittent and energy limited resource such as wind and cogeneration.

1.3.2.6  Criteria for including planned resource additions in the analysis

1.3.3     Transmission limitations that prevent the delivery of generation reserves

1.3.3.1  Criteria for including planned Transmission Facility additions in the analysis

1.3.4     Assistance from other interconnected systems including multi-area assessment considering Transmission limitations into the study area.

1.4        Consider the following resource availability characteristics and document how and why they were included in the analysis or why they were not included:

1.4.1     Availability and deliverability of fuel.

1.4.2     Common mode outages that affect resource availability

1.4.3     Environmental or regulatory restrictions of resource availability.

1.4.4     Any other demand (Load) response programs not included in R1.3.1.

1.4.5     Sensitivity to resource outage rates.

1.4.6     Impacts of extreme weather/drought conditions that affect unit availability.

1.4.7     Modeling assumptions for emergency operation procedures used to make reserves available.

1.4.8     Market resources not committed to serving Load (uncommitted resources) within the Planning Coordinator area.

1.5        Consider Transmission maintenance outage schedules and document how and why they were included in the Resource Adequacy analysis or why they were not included

1.6        Document that capacity resources are appropriately accounted for in its Resource Adequacy analysis

1.7        Document that all Load in the Planning Coordinator area is accounted for in its Resource Adequacy analysis

M1 Each Planning Coordinator shall possess the documentation that a valid Resource Adequacy analysis was performed or verified in accordance with R1

R2 The Planning Coordinator shall annually document the projected Load and resource capability, for each area or Transmission constrained sub-area identified in the Resource Adequacy analysis [Violation Risk Factor: Lower] [Time Horizon: Long-term Planning].

2.1        This documentation shall cover each of the years in Year One through ten.

2.2        This documentation shall include the Planning Reserve margin calculated per requirement R1.1 for each of the three years in the analysis.

2.3        The documentation as specified per requirement R2.1 and R2.2 shall be publicly posted no later than 30 calendar days prior to the beginning of Year One.

M2 Each Planning Coordinator shall possess the documentation of its projected Load and resource capability, for each area or Transmission constrained sub-area identified in the Resource Adequacy analysis on an annual basis in accordance with R2.

R3 The Planning Coordinator shall identify any gaps between the needed amount of planning reserves defined in Requirement R1, Part 1.1 and the projected planning reserves documented in Requirement R2 [Violation Risk Factor: Lower] [Time Horizon: Long-term Planning].

M3 Each Planning Coordinator shall possess the documentation identifying any gaps between the needed amounts of planning reserves and projected planning reserves in accordance with R3.